CDC predicts continued declines in Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths over next 4 weeks

(CNN)Covid-19 deaths and hospitalizations are expected to decline over the next fours weeks, according to ensemble forecasts from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Wednesday.

The latest forecast predicts 740,000 to 762,000 reported deaths by November 6. It’s third consecutive week of a projected decrease in newly reported deaths.
There have been more than 717,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The latest CDC forecast predicts 500 to 10,100 new confirmed Covid-19 hospitalizations likely to be reported by November 5 — a fifth straight week of projected declines. As of October 12, there were 64,332 people hospitalized with Covid-19, according to US Health and Human Services data.

In terms of cases, there was no predicted increase or decrease.
The latest forecasts come as Covid-19 cases are declining in the US — an optimistic outlook that needs to be tempered by the still-high rate of infections, especially in children.
The number of new cases in children remains “exceptionally high,” with 148,222 cases reported in the week ending October 7, according to data from the American Academy of Pediatrics published Monday.
Children represented nearly a quarter of weekly reported Covid-19 cases, the AAP said.
Nationally, Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been decreasing, according to Johns Hopkins University. Over the last week, an average of 87,676 people reported infections and 1,559 people died of Covid-19 a day, according to JHU data.
The infection rate still remains well above what’s needed — which Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday should be below 10,000.

And with winter threatening to send people indoors and increase spread, experts worry cases could go back up again. The risk is higher for children, many of whom are still not yet eligible for vaccination.
Currently, vaccines are only available for children as young as 12, although Pfizer and BioNTech have requested an emergency use authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration for younger children.
In the meantime, some schools have leaned on preventative measures to protect students, like masking, distancing and testing. In Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker is planning to deploy 200 members of the National Guard to assist in school testing for Covid-19.
But vaccination remains the best tool to fight the pandemic, experts say.
And some regions are doing better than others.

Thirty-five states have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents while five more — Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine and Massachusetts — have fully vaccinated more than two-thirds, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Overall, the numbers aren’t as promising. As of Tuesday night, only 56.5% of the US population was fully vaccinated, according to CDC data.
“We need the overwhelming proportion of those unvaccinated people to be vaccinated and then we can be quite confident that if we can do that, you will not see a resurgence,” said Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
In fact, vaccines could have prevented more than 90,000 deaths over the past three months, according to a new analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
More than 104,000 people in the US died of Covid-19 between June and September 2021, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Vaccines were widely available to all US adults at the time, but an “overwhelming majority” of those who died were unvaccinated, according to the KFF analysis.
If all adults age 18 or older were vaccinated, more than 90,000 additional lives could have been saved between June and September. About half of those preventable deaths — about 49,000 — occurred in September alone, according to the foundation’s analysis.

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